Third consecutive fall for overall economic confidence - Credit Managers' Index
Confidence in the UK’s economy has fallen again, being driven primarily by a steady decline in manufacturing, according to preliminary results from the Chartered Institute of Credit Management’s (CICM) latest quarterly barometer.
Early indications from Q3 of the Credit Managers’ Index (CMI) show a third consecutive quarterly fall in the index’s headline figure, representing a worrying trend. The results goes against recent economic data as well as a survey of credit professionals prior to the referendum vote that concluded half of all credit professionals believed a Brexit vote would have little or no impact on their business.
In results that mirror Q2, the Index’s Q3 preliminary results show it has been most affected by the falling confidence in the manufacturing sector, which is down four percent to 54.9. The services sector is more optimistic and remains broadly flat, ensuring the headline result remains above the 50-point threshold and now stands at 55.3, representing a 0.8 point-fall on Q2.
The CMI is a diffusion index producing ‘scores’ of between one and 100 (typically in a range of 40 – 60). Ten equally weighted factors are included – three favourable and seven unfavourable – and the index is calculated on a simple average of the ten factors.
All favourable factors, credit sales, new credit applications and the order book, increased in Q1 and Q2, however Q3’s preliminary findings show all three have fallen. Four of the seven unfavourable factors have also worsened.