Will talk of an Interest rate rise affect the CICM’s headline survey?
After a 7.1 percent fall in Q3 2015 of the Chartered Institute of Credit Management’s (CICM) Credit Managers’ Index (UK CMI), the next round of views from across the manufacturing and services sectors are now being sought.
With previous all-time Index highs being recorded, displaying the strength of business confidence in the earlier part of the year, the new survey will be important in determining whether 2015 ends on a positive note, or suggests a downward trend.
Philip King, Chief Executive of the CICM, says that a fall in confidence would be particularly worrying: “With recent murmurs from the Chancellor of the Exchequer about interest rate rises in 2016, credit managers may see their confidence eroded.”
The Index, sponsored by Tinubu Square, is important because it gauges nationwide levels of credit being sought and granted by credit managers across both the manufacturing and services sectors. It therefore acts as a primary indicator of actual levels of business being conducted.
The index’s credibility rests on credit managers’ responses: “Credit managers, Government departments, business organisations and CICM members are all urged to submit their experiences to the Q4 survey,” Philip continues.
The CMI is a diffusion index producing ‘scores’ of between one and 100 (typically in a range of 40-60). Ten equally weighted factors are included – three favourable and seven unfavourable – and the Index is calculated on a simple average Credit Managers’ views and statistics are sought on such issues as applications for credit through to days sales outstanding.