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Export & International

Reaction to Supreme Court ruling - Ana Boata, European economist at Euler Hermes

By CreditMan Tuesday, January 24, 2017

“This raises the probability of a later than expected activation date which we now believe will happen in the second half of 2017, after the German elections, in order not to lose time for negotiations.

“In exchange of full control on immigration, law making, limitation to the contribution to EU budget, the UK will exit the Single Market and will seek a Free Trade Agreement with EU countries (accounting for a total of 44% of total UK exports) and other extra-EU countries. On top of the list - and quick wins - will most probably be the US (10% of UK exports), Australia (1.2% of UK exports) and India (1.3% of UK exports).

“Given the potential rise in the overall tariffs on goods, we estimate the total export loss with the EU to reach close to GBP9bn - or 3% of UK total goods exports - on the first year of the introduction of these new tariffs after the UK’s exit.

“So Brexit will be “Hard” as the road ahead is long and uncertain; political negotiations to exit the EU are expected to last until 2019, while a new FTA may not be finalised before 2024. But Brexit’s aim will be “Soft”’ as the UK is committed to maintaining strong commercial ties with the EU and achieving tariff-free trade on strategic sectors while ensuring the lowest tariffs possible for the rest.”