UK to remain in EU - Euler Hermes comments
“We continue to forecast that the UK will remain in the EU, even if the ‘In’ vote is only won by a narrow margin. However, the fears of a UK exit will affect sentiment and possibly delay investment decisions. We expect the negative impact will be highest in Q2 2016, but signs are already visible in declining short-term financial (portfolio) investments of -GBP85bn since Q2 2015.
“A potential Brexit explains 40% of the fall; the rest reflects the generally weakening economic environment of GDP slowdown, dovish monetary policy and external headwinds such market volatility and the slowdown in China. We expect GDP growth will slow to +2% in 2016, from +2.2% in 2015, and to +1.9% in 2017.”